Kondratiev Curve

  THE US ECONOMY & THE KONDRATIEV ECONOMIC SEASONS



The US government is fast approaching its debt ceiling, which means a size of debt beyond which it can borrow no more without the approval of Congress. Theoretically it won’t be able to pay its bills! So what is Congress doing about resolving the problem? Not much, just a lot of talking and posturing for the media with no progress.

And what is the president doing? President Obama is insisting on tax increases as an ingredient of any deal to raise the debt limit. He wants to increase NOT decrease spending. He is saying things differently now than what he said a couple of years ago about taxing during a recession. Back then he said taxes were not the way to go. Now he says they are ok. Are we out of the Great Recession? I think not. He speaks with forked tongue for political expediency to satisfy the left, not the American people.

The horrible truth is that the USA is caught in a cyclical downward economic vortex caused by many governmental and personal excesses. Both parties are guilty of the spending excesses of the nation and the huge debts and obligations but it is on Obama’s watch to fix. Simply, the nation, with an aggregate debt of $14.498 TRILLION and unfunded liabilities of $114.662 TRILLION and its citizens, with aggregate debts of $16.053 TRILLION have spent too much for too long (the good times) and taken on unsustainable debt loads and unfunded liabilities which they cannot repay or afford in the foreseeable future.


Unfortunately these 3 staggering sums come at a time in history when the economic cycle is in a normal down trend. This is best described as the Kondratiev Winter. (See figure below) Not to be outdone, Europe is there too, not just the PIIGS but the whole of Europe. China is on its way. Latin America is a continental basket case. Never mind the BRIC. Russia doesn’t belong in it.


My take on the debt problem is basic. ~$0.42 of every USD spent by the government is borrowed. The solution: cut spending across the board by 42%. Tough medicine but it may not be too far off the mark.


So, why do I write this? I write this because these financial problems have an impact on your life and that of your family and friends. Below is a message I gave to my children which summarizes where we are and where I think we are heading. They are heeding the advice. I thought you might find this interesting in light of the present problematic situation in which the world finds itself.


“The Kondratiev wave or curve (Check the link below) as it is sometimes called is a theorem I studied at university. There is a great deal of truth to it however the cycle can vary from 50-70 years and not strictly 50 years as illustrated in the graph. I believe that we are currently in the early “D” phase of the curve which is sometimes called the Kondratiev Winter. E= Spring, P=Summer, R=Autumn. Those are the four seasons. I think we have 12-15 years left in the “winter” phase we are now in. Conduct your lives accordingly. No debt, no payments. Differentiate between NEED and WANT in the things you purchase. Postpone wants, study each need. Be disciplined and frugal. This will get you through the winter. Be wary of fiat currencies and buy gold or silver (http://www.goldmoney.com/) as a means to protect your wealth. The US$$$ and € are dropping like stones and your buying power is greatly diminishing with them and will erode more as inflation and possibly hyperinflation sets in during the next few years.


It is a time to be very cautious with your hard earned money and protect your wealth.”



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave

DIVINE MERCY

I believe that religion is a significant part of our life and it is an important part of my daily life. It has been for years, but more so of late. I recently read a biography of St. Sr. Faustina and would like to share it here with you. The link is: http://www.faustina-message.com/index.htm 

She was given a message to have a picture painted of Jesus. It is here.

THE FIRST IMAGE OF MERCIFUL JESUS






"I am offering people a vessel with which they are to keep coming for graces

to the fountain of mercy. That vessel is this image with the signature:

Jesus, I trust in You" (Diary, 327).


"By means of this Image I shall be granting many graces,

so let every soul have access to it". (Diary, 570).

Jesus, I trust in You!

How I titled the blog

"Dare to Dream"!

Selecting a title for this blog was taken seriously. I wanted it to reflect a bit of my spirit, drive and philosophy. For many years, when counselling young people on choosing a career path, I have encouraged them to: "Dare to dream...then go for it!" Some have taken the challenge, some have not. Everyone is made a bit different and makes choices for a variety of reasons known to them. I hope some have had some happiness and success as a result of my counsel.

I believe this reflects what has partly driven me to follow a career in searching for natural resources in different parts of the world. The dream of a new discovery, a new place to see, new people to meet, new experiences, new challenges, a new project to build and maybe accomplish something I haven't done before. 

It seems i was born this way, a dreamer. One time my mother went to see my teacher on parents' day at school, you know that day when your mom (dad didn't go very often) would get all the skinny about you from your techers. You hoped she wouldn't hear the stories about how you blew spit balls at other students through the hollowed barrel of your pen. This was in grade 4 or 5. When she asked the teacher: "How is my Jimmy doing?" the teacher responded: "He could do so well if he just wouldn't dream so much!" So there, I was an early dreamer! I still am at almost 70 years old. I'm dreaming of my next project and how to put it together, finance it and make it work.

Have all my dreams come true? Nope. But some have. We'll get into those later on in other posts. If I hadn't had a dream I may not have had the wonderful career I have had during the past ~50 years! I wouldn't change a thing about it.

My comment to you, the reader: "Dare to dream...then go for it!" You might have a lot of fun and and meet some wonderful people and enjoyed the beauty of God's Planet.

Have a great day!

Jim 

Why am I writing a blog?

Well many of my friends have said that I should write a book of my travels and experiences from my career in resources exploration and development in different parts of the world. I thought that would be interesting but concluded that books are passe. We live in a new world, changed by the internet and with more opportunities to be seen by a much larger audience, all for free. So why not write my book as a blog? That seems like a better idea, at least to me.

So here it is, the first post of my blog. I don't know what to expect from it. Maybe someone will read it. Maybe many someones will read it. I guess we'll find out during the course of the writing and posting.

What do I hope to achieve by this? I'm not entirely sure yet. Maybe someone will read it and find some of my experiences interesting. Perhaps someone will read it and learn something from my 40+ years of visiting some far away lands and searching for and developing gold, silver, lead, zinc, uranium, nickel, oil & natural gas. They might find some of the people I've met to be interesting. They might even find some of my philosophy of life worth remembering. Time will tell.

Drop a comment as you read this and tell me why you read the blog and what you think of it. We all learn by listening to others. Remember, God gave us 2 ears and 1 mouth so that we could listen twice as much as we speak. I'm listening. I hope you enjoy it and keep coming back for more posts.

Have a great day!